Chicago’s weather forecast for July 20, 2050: average temperature around 120 degrees Fahrenheit, variable winds with slight gusts up to 120 mph; early afternoon will be mild, with scattered thunderstorms, and in the evening we can expect occasional tornadoes...

This futuristic weather forecast may look like an April Fool’s joke to most people, or like a science-fiction nightmare scenario. However, as the former Vice-President Al Gore points out and the scientists concur, such weather forecasts may become routine in the wake of climate change. Although the first signs of global warming have been noted already in the 1950s, the very term became a household word only in the 1980s. For decades, it was received with skepticism as yet another sensational theory invented by scientist to gain notoriety.

In recent years, however, global warming attracted considerable media attention. This might be simply due to the fact the evidence has become difficult to ignore. Rapid melting of the ice caps, both in the mountains and in the Arctic and Antarctic, rising average temperatures in many parts of the world, greater frequency and intensity of floods and hurricanes are named by scientist as just a few among the many symptoms of global warming. Al Gore’s documentary, The Inconvenient Truth, brought global warming to the forefront of public discussion in the media.

Concern for the environment is nothing new to Al Gore. Since he took his seat in Congress, he has proven himself as an ardent advocate of environmental reforms. In 1970s he helped organize a conference on toxic waste. The author of Earth in Balance, Al Gore was also one of the founders of the GLOBE program, aiming at teaching environmental science in schools worldwide. Gore has been one of the first Congressmen to raise the question of global warming in 1980s. His documentary presents the issue in very accessible way; it treats the potential impact of global warming on the earth’s climate and ecosystem, as well as outlines the political and economic context of the problem.

What is inconvenient about this truth? Have we really, as the scientists claim, brought about the warming of the earth’s atmosphere? Are we heading towards an inevitable disaster? Or is the rise in average temperatures merely due to natural fluctuations in climate over which we have no control?

Let us begin by explaining the origin of global warming. As the sunlight reaches the surface of the earth, it is partially reflected back into space. Greenhouse gases, such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane absorb solar radiation instead of reflecting it, causing climate warming. Despite the appearances, it is a positive phenomenon without which the earth’s average surface temperature would have been about 59.5 degrees Fahrenheit lower, making life impossible for most organisms. The presence of greenhouse gases becomes proble-matic when their quantity is increased as a result of pollution. More solar energy becomes trapped near the earth’s surface, thus intensifying the climate warming: a phenomenon known as the “greenhouse effect.”

According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the concentration of carbon dioxide increased by 30% since the industrial revolution, and the concentration of methane doubled. If the current rate of change remains steady, the average surface temperatures may rise by 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit within the next 50 years, and even by nearly 10 degrees within the next century. Critics may argue that such temperature increase is too small to produce any significant effect. It must be noted, however, that these are average temperatures calculated for the planet as a whole, and local oscillations may be much greater and felt much more acutely.

What are the possible effects of global war-ming? Does it simply mean that the air will get a bit warmer, or will the change have a far greater impact? The entire planet functions as one interconnected ecosystem. That is why even a small change in global temperatures may have grave consequences.

Let us examine the case of glaciers. Accor-ding to the World Glacier Monitoring Service, over 90% of mountain glaciers show signs of withdrawing. In countries such as China, Tibet, India, or Peru, the melting ice water feeds into lakes and rivers constituting the main source of drinking water. The melting ice cover will temporarily boost the flow of water in mountain streams, only to leave some of the most densely populated regions dry once the glaciers are gone. 

The disappearance of Arctic and Antarctic glaciers can entail even graver consequences. According to NASA, the Arctic ice cover diminished by 20% since 1979. If the trend continues, the Arctic may be ice-free by the end of the century. As a result of massive ice melt, the sea levels may rise as much as 35 inches by 2100. It may not seem like much, but it suffices to endanger many seashore cities, especially during storms. Sub-polar regions are particularly sensitive to climate change, and it is they that play the role of climate regulators on earth. That’s why even slight unbalance in these regions may set off a catastrophic chain reaction. The disturbances in ocean currents provide a salient example. Polar regions are crucial in maintaining the ocean current patterns throughout the globe. Any disturbance or inversion of the current would be disastrous.

Global warming affects not only glaciers: the Arctic fauna is suffering as well. Many species are forced to migrate to colder zones. Scientists have shown that the habitats of polar bears, seals, and walruses, for instance, have shifted towards the poles. Certain species of birds can now be encountered where they were formerly unknown. Some animals face extinction, such
as the polar bear which needs floating ice in order to survive.

Other effects of global warming include noticeable weather anomalies, such as intensified precipitation, drought, heat waves, and more frequent and deadly hurricanes. Last year’s hurricanes Katrina and Rita provide the most tangible evidence. Although skeptics claim that it was only an isolated incident, MIT researchers show that since 1970s the average hurricane strength increased by 50%. Magazine Nature confirms that the strength and the duration of hurricanes increased over past 30 years. Scientists cite the rising sea level as the main reason for this phenomenon: heat energy trapped by the ocean and surface water vapor is the principal factor in hurricane formation. 

What are the causes of global warming? Although the opinions in the scientific world are divided, the majority of studies show that human activity is the chief factor. As we have noted earlier, the concentration of greenhouse gases is augmented by fossil fuel emissions, produced by burning oil, natural gas, and coal. Deforestation presents yet another major problem. According to NASA, lumbering and forest burning are responsible for 25% of carbon dioxide pollution. We lose yearly the equivalent of the surface of Italy to deforestation. The problem is particularly pronounced in the developing world where traditional branches of economy, such as agriculture and stock-rai-
sing, are the principal source of national income. As to greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide, Environmental Protection Agency reports that the chief culprits are the United States, China, Russia, India, Japan, and Germany, with the U.S. in the lead. Although the population of the United States constitutes less than 4% of the world’s population, the country is responsible for over 25% of global carbon dioxide emissions. That is more than China, India, and Japan put together. Industries producing the heaviest emissions are coal-fired power plants (2.5 billion tons a year) and the transportation sector (1.5 billion tons a year).

The good news is that there are energy-sa-ving technologies available today allowing to reduce both power plant and auto emissions. It is estimated that if car manufacturers raised their fuel economy standards in new cars and utility vehicles to 40 miles per gallon, the CO2 pollution would decline by 650 million tons a year. Unfortunately, these technologies are not implemented as fast as they should, or not at all. Why? The problem lies in the nature of economic policies and, although it involves most developed countries in the world, it is most pronounced in the United States.

First, the current U.S. government is dominated by extreme-right conservative factions. One of the tenants of American conservatism is free market and economic wealth. Conservatists consider these values so important that many of them are willing to satisfy them at the expense of the environment. The myth of “economy against nature” persists in conservative circles, and although this binary opposition used to be inevitable, thanks to technological progress the two values are no longer at odds. American car industry, tottering on the verge of bankruptcy and producing cars of inferior quality and low fuel efficiency, offers here a good example. On the other hand, Japanese car companies have been registering continued growth, and pioneered the hybrid car.

Another problem is not so much of politico-economic nature, but has to do with sheer greed on the part of international corporations that have been abusing their influence to block new regulations and legal restrictions that would put their profits at risk. Bush administration’s close ties with the oil and automotive industries are common knowledge. Both George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney worked in the oil industry before entering the world of politics. This might smack of another conspi-racy theory, yet the facts speak for themselves. Since the present administration took office, most regulations pertaining to the environment, including even the Clean Air Act and the Endangered Species Act, have been severely limited. The administration also refused to sign the Kyoto treaty which obliged the adherents to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions. Every single year the Bush administration has tried to pass a bill opening the Alaska nature reserve to oil companies. At the same time, any bill ai-ming at raising fuel efficiency and power plant emissions standards meets with great resistance in Congress. Things are not any diffe-rent where global warming is concerned. Since day one, the Bush administration has been ostentatiously ignoring or censoring all NASA and EPA reports about global warming. Studies showing worldwide rise in temperatures or demonstrating human influence over climate change were countered with opposing research sponsored, curiously, by the American Petroleum Institute. James Hansen, the director of NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, commented: “Throughout the three decades of my communication with the government, I have never seen the flow of information from the scientific world to the general public to be controlled to the extent it is today.”

It is rather sad that the government of a country that, at least until recently, has been perceived as a symbol of freedom and democracy, sacrifices the welfare of its society for the sake of short-term benefits of a small group of people. The situation is extremely serious. Although, for now, the climactic changes are gradual, the ecosystem of our planet is bound to reach a critical point beyond which they will become irreversible. Scientists differ as to when that moment will take place, but even if we stick to the moderate version, at the present rate of atmospheric pollution, we have about 10 years to take action.

Al Gore’s film, despite its bleak vision of the future, nevertheless sends a positive message. It tells us that everyone is responsible for the earth’s future, and everyone can take certain measures to influence it. Here are a few things we can do:

- Replace incandescent bulbs at home with fluorescent light bulbs (cfl). Such bulbs use 60% less energy, which will save about 300 pounds in carbon dioxide emissions.

- Set the thermostat degrees higher in the summer two, and two degrees lower in winter, thus helping decrase CO2 emissions by as much as 2,000 pounds.

- Replace or clean filters on your air conditioner.

- Purchase energy-efficient electrical appliances with the Energy Star symbol.

- Unplug an electrical appliance if it is not in use. It is estimated that the waste of energy by idle appliances is responsible for 18 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions a year.

- Avoid buying frozen food; it requires ten times as much energy to produce as fresh products.

- If you can, buy organic food. Studies show that organic soils absorb carbon dioxide much better than soil on conventional farms.

- Maintain your vehicle in good condition and regularly check the tire pressure.

- If you’re thinking of purchasing a new car, consider a hybrid.

- If you have room in your garden, plant a tree. During its life-time, a single tree may absorb even a ton of carbon dioxide.

More information can be found at

www.climatecrisis.net.